Forecasting Regional Mobility

Connected, Autonomous Vehicles Changing Travel Landscape

Evaluating System Performance

It is abundantly clear that the introduction of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) will change the landscape of travel in the region. Proceeding with the traditional projects recommended in this plan certainly provides benefits to mobility. However, the impacts of CAVs, ridesharing and reductions in trip making rates will be revolutionary. The region will realize tremendous improvements in regional mobility, as described in the Vision section.

Traditional Plan

First we present the traditional and required Plan scenarios. Information from the approved, validated OKI Travel Demand Model provides a summary of the overall transportation system performance for 2026, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2050, 2050 E+C.

2050 Vision

The technological revolution sweeping through all transportation modes requires OKI to imagine how those changes may affect our region. While the above approach serves as the official OKI 2050 MTP Plan, this Vision 2050 goes outside the bounds of tradition and tests the impacts of rapid change in automation, mobility across society, and shared mobility as a service. In this chapter, we explore what is possible. We put forward the extent of connected and autonomous vehicles, the number of shared-use trips, as well as turn the vehicle ownership model upside down.

 

Comparing VMT and VHT Increases

  • When comparing 2020 to 2050 Plan Base, daily VMT is expected to increase 10 percent, daily VHT is expected to increase 11% percent and congested VMT is expected to increase 15 percent.
  • When comparing the 2050 Plan to the 2050 EC (“low build existing plus committed roadway and transit), VMT and VHT  are expected to be slightly higher in the 2050 Plan, however the congested VMT and daily hours of delay are forecast to be slightly lower.
  • The 2050 Plan Vision shows great promise in all aspects of mobility.

2050 Vision VMT is forecast to be 40% lower than the 2050 Plan and 46% lower than 2020.

Crash estimates are not a direct output of the travel model, but, based on research by national safety experts, crash reductions due to connected and autonomous vehicles are predicted to be about 50 percent for 2050 Vision.

Summary by Mode

The OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan includes revenues assigned to continued operations and maintenance of the system (O&M). The following is a brief summary of new projects for each mode in addition to O&M.

Transit

Fixed-route service is provided by five transit agencies across the region and the Cincinnati Streetcar. Central city neighborhoods, served by many routes and a large number of buses running at relatively short headways, enjoy very good radial access to the Central Business District, or downtown Cincinnati. Metro has added service since the COVID-19 providing additional crosstown and on-demand service. Suburban locations are served primarily by commuter service composed of more express service but fewer runs. Metro has two Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) routes in the design phase. More information about Transit can be found under Existing & Future Conditions: Modal Trends & Conditions: Transit & Mobility as a Service.

The transit recommendations in this plan include two more high frequency bus service on high priority transit corridors (BRT), creation of additional bus passenger facilities and shelters.

The plan recommendations include 10 transit projects with an investment of $626 million.

The table below highlights the number of people, households and jobs currently served by the existing fixed-route transit service in the region. The results of this impact assessment found that:

  • In 2020, the number of residents and households within easy walking distance (one-quarter mile) of a fixed-route transit line was more than 88,000 and 37,000, respectively.
  • In 2020, there were more than 445,000 employees living within easy walking distance of a fixed-route transit line, as well as more than 2,000 employers.
  • In 2020, transit fixed routes served more than 26,000 minorities, 16,000 residents below the poverty line, and 4,800 households without a personal vehicle.

Active Transportation

A goal of this plan is to provide a balanced, multimodal program of projects. Active transportation trips such as walking and biking often serve at the beginning end of a trip, which makes them very important to consider. Local partners provided insightful bicycle and pedestrian transportation needs during the development of this 2050 Plan.

  • 51 bicycle and pedestrian projects are recommended, adding 149.1 new miles of shared use paths at a total investment $472 million.

Roadway

  • The plan recommendations add 134 roadway lane miles to the highway network at a total investment of $2.53 billion. An additional $3.78 billion is recommended for a wide range of projects including signalization upgrades, transportation system management and operations (TSMO), intersection improvements and major reconstruction projects.
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